Why I think GMA would not RESIGN as PRESIDENT: for DUMMIES

I believe that President Gloria Arroyo won't resign as chief executive of this country and I strongly agree that she will finish her term until 2010.

With all due respect to all those students and rallyists and to all opposition members calling for her ouster, what you are doing right now is not enough to stun The Palace and force The President to resign.

Let us review the EDSA 1 and EDSA 2 as an example of how two powerful leaders of our country stepped out of the Palace. Those are from two different decades but if you try to look at every details of those movement, you will see that they have a common denominator.

Here are my reasons why I think that President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo would never RESIGN and why I think she will finish her term(based on EDSA 1 and EDSA 2 events) :

1. People Power is not enough - Let's admit it. Our opposition right now may have gathered the ideal number of people that calls for GMA to resign but the only significant element right now are the students(ATENEO, UP, UST, UE, DLSU)... Those were such big universities but aside from the BAYAN MUNA, AKBAYAN, KABATAAN, BAYAN and kilusang magsasaka, magbubukid, mangingisda, mamamanicure, mang-ffriendster at mangmumultiply, the only left in the workforce of the opposition are those SQUATTERS coming from MAKATI which I believe are just die-hard BINAY SUPPORTERS. Maybe JUN LOZADA may have the biggest impact in today's political and economic activities but you need force from the middle class. Jun Lozada is not enough. Forget the elite class and concentrate on the ordinary Juan deLa Cruz. It is in the middle class where the real manpower belongs. Most importantly, they are the one sick of this country.

2. The disunited Opposition - Back to the middle class, many people or I mean a lot of people may now be discontented with this administration but the problem is that no one or only a few are following the calls of the opposition for GMA's ouster. Reason? Only few believes in the kind of opposition we have right now. I remember a political saying that in politics, there are no real friends or enemies but only interests. People thinks that if ever GMA resign then that would be a much bigger problem. Who would replace GMA once she's gone? The opposition wouldn't agree with Noli De Castro because that would be hypocricy. When GMA resign, then it would be a war between Noli against Loren against Ping against JDV and even against Joseph Estrada. That is what politics in our country is all about. The opposition does not have a proper and working machinery.

3. Military. Period - I told you a while ago that this is based on what had transpired during EDSA 1 and 2 and admit it or not but I strongly believe that the Military is the most significant factor in ousting a President. Enrile and Ramos in EDSA 1 plus the historical jump. Angelo Reyes in EDSA 2. Perfect cinematography isn't it? Those who think that Trillanes is a modern hero is an idiot. You need big names in military other than Honasan, Querubin and Lim. Those three were "has-beens". It's now an Esperon, Palparan and Barias country in the battlefield and as long as you don't have any strong military support, then all your dreams of ousting Gloria is just a wild imagination.

I am not on the protagonist or the antagonist but admit that today is not the time. Don't put the country in another People Power because the world won't forgive another EDSA. That would mean that we are in a nuthouse. What we must do right now is put it in the proper forum and wait for the 2010 election and choose the best person to lead this country. For now, just admit the fact that you can't win against GMA.